Chapter 496 Sudden Change of Situation (3)

  In the next few trading days, various rumors suddenly emerged in the market, including a natural gas pipeline leak somewhere in the United States, this year may be the coldest winter, and a hurricane is forming in the Gulf of Mexico. These news affected the performance of natural gas prices to a certain extent, but the effectiveness of these news was just a flash in the pan in the market, and quickly disappeared without a trace, and the price did not change fundamentally.

  Starting from August 31, natural gas prices once again faced a 3.66% decline, and then began to hover between 6.1 and 5.8. It must be noted that compared with the highest price of 8.61 at the end of July and early August, this price is undoubtedly more rational, because it is approaching October and there is no threat of hurricanes, so it is only natural for natural gas prices to fall at this time. became inevitable.

  But not everyone thinks that the current natural gas price is normal, at least those who are gambling on the far-month position definitely don't think so. In the past few days, the two sides have continued to compete in the market, and almost all of them have invested a lot of money. As of September 14, the two sides have opened at least 15,000 new positions, with a total investment of more than 1.5 billion US dollars. And even so, the two sides still failed to overwhelm their opponents in Yuanyue, and the two sides were still in a close relationship.

However, in the market in recent months, after the initial raid, Sagittarius Asset Management did not dare to continue such a large-scale attack. After all, they were also worried that they would be investigated by the SEC. Nine times out of ten, nothing will happen, but Sagittarius is not willing to take the risk.

Although they did not continue to build positions on a large scale in the market, Sagittarius did not relax their suppression of the front-month contracts at all. They had sufficient reasons to short the September and October contracts, because this is in line with seasonal price fluctuations. And just in case, they have even prepared a detailed operating strategy to explain to the SEC when necessary.

  In this stalemate situation, there are undercurrents raging, and the party that is the market hegemon and the party that secretly snipe them have invested a lot of money. During this period, the natural gas position of the Evergreen Fund surged to 98,400 lots. These are open positions, which were involved in the months of 0609, 0610, 0703, and 0704. The heavy positions were on 0703 and 0704. The position is an arbitrage combination of 82,500, while most of the others are in the arbitrage combination in September and October, and there are only a few parts in other months.

In addition to these futures positions, the Evergreen Fund also holds a small amount of option positions, but these option positions are only a supplement to the current market. Because of the arbitrage relationship, their combination is mainly 0703 put options and 0704 The bullish option can be regarded as a risk hedge for one's own huge position.

   On the other end, leading the sniping against the Everlasting Flower Fund, basically Zhongshi’s funds are leading the attack. During this period of time, they absorbed more than 10,000 new positions, and it was only when they were under most of the pressure that other funds dared to enter the market to take over other positions, otherwise these funds would have been disqualified. The Blossom Fund was crushed.

Although so far, the price difference between the 0703 and 0704 contracts has been narrowed to about 1.8 US dollars, according to Zhongshi's estimation, the non-withered flower fund has lost at least 100 million to 200 million US dollars, but these are not enough to give the non-withered flower Funds do fatal damage. And at this time, the turning point of fate finally arrived!

  The National Weather Service (NWS) of the United States is mainly responsible for providing weather, water temperature and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories, adjacent waters and marine areas, so as to protect life, property and the national economy.

NWS has at least nine national support centers to provide meteorological support to branch offices across the United States, including national environmental forecasting, climate forecasting, environmental modeling, marine forecasting, aviation meteorology, hydrometeorology, space environment, storm forecasting, hurricane forecasting, Tsunami forecasting and other aspects.

This time, in their publication "Weather Forecast", they originally introduced a new type of weather forecast model, which combines the data monitored by NASA's latest track-through infrared detector from outer space and the NWS in Maryland. The climate data monitored by myself was put into the latest weather computer for simulation and evaluation, and the accuracy of the final conclusion was fully improved by 12.47% compared with the previous evaluation simulation system.

  The market doesn’t care how advanced the model is, how much data it can hold, etc. What they care about is what kind of conclusions this latest model can draw. Because this conclusion will affect the prices of various energy sources to some extent, not only natural gas, but also oil.

   In this publication, there will naturally be no shortage of places that interest the market. In fact, while introducing this latest weather model, NWS experts used this model to analyze various weather data from this year. Comparing the calculated results, it is concluded that this winter is very likely to be a warm winter.

  The content of this publication, which is usually published on the 15th, began to circulate in a small area after the market closed on the 13th. Although it is said that "the sky is unpredictable", with the increasing development of modern technology, the weather can often be predicted, although this kind of prediction is the most accurate in the short term. And because of the "butterfly effect", in the long-term weather forecast, there is often a big gap between the actual situation and the final real result.

   Despite this, the forecast from the NWS is enough to convince the market, because they are the absolute authority in the field of meteorology, not only in the United States, but also in the entire world. And what the market can refer to, of course, can only be their opinions.

   "God, is this real? How can it be a warm winter?"

   It was no surprise that this news also reached Bond Hunter's ears at lightning speed, and this time he couldn't help roaring again.

  Although the current market conditions are sluggish, he found out from several matches in the far-month contract that the other party seemed to be out of funds. You must know that they took a lot of positions at a high level before. Even if they have a small profit now, it is not enough to support them to invest tens of millions of funds into newly opened positions every day.

According to the analysis during this period of time, Bond Hunter has determined that the other party has no more than 1 billion funds at most. Excluding the funds used as extra margin and daily settlement, the funds that can be used are no more than 500 million. The reason why It was not defeated before, because the decline of the near-month contract narrowed the price difference of the far-month contract. After the other party made a profit, it invested a part of the extra margin into the new position. However, this behavior of feeding back with war can be maintained. How long?

  Bond Hunter is very confident that in the next few days, he will gather another sum of funds to completely defeat his opponent, but at this time, there are rumors of the so-called "warm winter".

Yes, Hunter is very confident that this is definitely a rumor from his opponent, because he has used similar tricks before, and he thinks he is much more proficient than the opponent, so when he heard this rumor, he Didn't take it too seriously. But later, more and more evidence showed that this was not an unfounded rumor, but a news released by an authoritative organization, so he couldn't sit still.

  The traders still drooped their heads. They were used to Hunter's yelling, and they knew that it would be useless to say anything at this time. It was best to wait for Hunter to vent his emotions first, and then everyone would work together to find a solution.

After a while, Hunter's roar finally stopped, and then a trader frowned and said: "Boss, this news may not be true, even if it is true, it doesn't mean anything, at most We continue to lose part of it. And once the market price falls to our expectation, we will continue to trade and close part of the position." "What do you know?" Hunter immediately yelled, and immediately silenced other traders who were about to speak out , he forced himself to suppress the anger in his heart, and pretended to be calm and said, "This is not the problem now. If the matter was so simple, I wouldn't lose my composure."

  The traders didn't speak, but everyone whispered in their hearts, even if the matter is very simple, don't you ever lose your composure? Of course, such complaints can only be said in their hearts, and they dare not say it out loud.

After calming down a bit, Hunter continued: "Don't you guys see it clearly until now? Now there are opponents who are against us and are eyeing our positions. I can guarantee that as long as we have a little trouble , it will immediately arouse the covetousness of those hunters, and when the time comes, they may swarm up and directly tear us apart!"

"The current problem has been divorced from the fundamentals. Let's take a look at our positions. How many positions have not been liquidated? These are basically impossible to liquidate in the short term. If we are really bitten by them, even if we want to admit defeat There is no chance. So, what we have to do now is to reduce our position as soon as possible."

   Until this time, Bond Hunter finally realized that his position was too large, and it was difficult to turn around at a critical moment. But all this was caused by his own madness. When he realized that he might not be able to defeat his opponent, he realized that he had become the target of others.

   "So what do we do now?"

   "Yes, who can digest such a large-scale position in a short period of time? We don't even know who the opponent is against us. Even if we want to surrender, we must know the identity of the opponent!"

   "What if the other party refuses to agree? Then do we have to pay part of the price, and how much is this price?"

  …

  Although they all know that the current position is too large and it is difficult to turn around, when they think about closing their positions, traders still look at each other in blank dismay, at a loss. It wasn't until this time that they were surprised to find that they didn't even know who their opponent was.

   "Don't worry, I know who it is, and I will communicate with him personally!"

Bond Hunter waved his hand, signaling to stop the chattering discussion, and then a sarcastic smile appeared on his face, "Don't you know how many giants there are in this market? Besides us, there are I believe you all know the few organizations that can be named. I believe that among them, there are those who are against us. Just pay a little price, just liquidate part of the position. Don’t worry, I’m already somewhat sure.”

   "Who is it?" The traders looked at each other, but soon someone thought of a name and blurted out: "John Arnold, Sagittarius Fund."

  In the originally noisy conference room, after hearing this name, it immediately became silent. The eyes of the traders almost all turned to Bond Hunter at the same time, hoping that he could give a clear answer.

  Although the Sagittarius Fund is not as well-known as the Never Withered Flower Fund, under the leadership of the talented trader John Arnold, their record in the natural gas market is obvious to all, even compared with the Never Withered Flower Fund. The everlasting trader has a lot of respect for the Sagittarius Fund as a peer, at least in some respects. So when it comes to giants in gas, John Arnold's name is the first to come up.

  Facing these long-awaited gazes, Bond Hunter finally nodded silently after glancing around for a while.

   I wrote in a hurry these two days, so please forgive me if there are any omissions. The author will try his best to adjust the writing state and strive to write well. Now everyone's enthusiasm is not high again. While improving myself, the author also calls on everyone to support more, thank you~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)